El New York Times, en su edición del 16 de Agosto, ha publicado una extraordinaria noticia: China parece haberse convertido a partir del segundo trimestre del 2010, en la segunda economía del mundo en términos absolutos (no en términos de bienestar, por supuesto). Los datos son importantes: Tendría ahora un promedio de 5.32 trillones de dolls de producto anual, un poco mas de Japón, que tendría 5.12. Le seguiría Alemania.
Los datos son muy importantes, pero aún así, vale decir que son sus 14 trillones anuales, Estados Unidos tiene una economía casi equiparable a la de sus tres competidores juntos: China, Japón y Alemania. Este hecho es de suma importancia para el análisis de la economía mundial, pero ante todo lo es para las perspectivas de inserción, vistas desde América Latina. No olvidemos sin embargo, que como bien lo dice el artículo del NYT, los precios actuales y en el próximo futuro de los "commodities", dependen en gran medida del estado de la demanda China. Y aunque el artículo no lo diga, de India y en general del Asia sudoriental. Veamos a continuacióin lo sustancial del artículo citado:
China Passes Japan as Second-Largest Economy
SHANGHAI — After three decades of spectacular growth, China passed Japan in the second quarter to become the world’s second-largest economy behind the United States, according to government figures released early Monday. The milestone, though anticipated for some time, is the most striking evidence yet that China’s ascendance is for real and that the rest of the world will have to reckon with a new economic superpower.
The recognition came early Monday, when Tokyo said that Japan’s economy was valued at about $1.28 trillion in the second quarter, slightly below China’s $1.33 trillion. Experts say unseating Japan — and in recent years passing Germany, France and Great Britain — underscores China’s growing clout and bolsters forecasts that China will pass the United States as the world’s biggest economy as early as 2030. America’s gross domestic product was about $14 trillion in 2009 (3.5 trillion per quarter).
For Japan, whose economy has been stagnating for more than a decade, the figures reflect a decline in economic and political power. While Japan’s economy is mature and its population quickly aging, China is in the throes of urbanization and is far from developed, analysts say, meaning it has a much lower standard of living, as well as a lot more room to grow. Just five years ago, China’s gross domestic product was about $2.3 trillion, about half of Japan’s.
This country has roughly the same land mass as the United States, but it is burdened with a fifth of the world’s population and insufficient resources. Its per capita income is more on a par with those of impoverished nations like Algeria, El Salvador and Albania — which, along with China, are close to $3,600 — than that of the United States, where it is about $46,000.
This country has roughly the same land mass as the United States, but it is burdened with a fifth of the world’s population and insufficient resources. Its per capita income is more on a par with those of impoverished nations like Algeria, El Salvador and Albania — which, along with China, are close to $3,600 — than that of the United States, where it is about $46,000.
Yet there is little disputing that under the direction of the Communist Party, China has begun to reshape the way the global economy functions by virtue of its growing dominance of trade, its huge hoard of foreign exchange reserves and United States government debt and its voracious appetite for oil, coal, iron ore and other natural resources. China is already a major driver of global growth. The country’s leaders have grown more confident on the international stage and have begun to assert greater influence in Asia, Africa and Latin America, with things like special trade agreements and multibillion dollar resource deals. And while the United States and the European Union are struggling to grow in the wake of the worst economic crisis in decades, China has continued to climb up the economic league tables by investing heavily in infrastructure and backing a $586 billion stimulus plan.
This year, although growth has begun to moderate a bit, China’s economy is forecast to expand about 10 percent — continuing a remarkable three-decade streak of double-digit growth. “This is just the beginning,” said Wang Tao, an economist at UBS in Beijing. “China is still a developing country. So it has a lot of room to grow. And China has the biggest impact on commodity prices — in Russia, India, Australia and Latin America.”
China is also locked in a fierce debate over its currency policy, with the United States, European Union and others accusing Beijing of keeping the Chinese currency, the renminbi, artificially low to bolster exports — leading to huge trade surpluses for China but major bilateral trade deficits for the United States and the European Union. China says that its currency is not substantially undervalued and that it is moving ahead with currency reform.
Regardless, China’s rapid growth suggests that it will continue to compete fiercely with the United States and Europe for natural resources but also offer big opportunities for companies eager to tap its market. Although its economy is still only one-third the size of the American economy, China passed the United States last year to become the world’s largest market for passenger vehicles. China also passed Germany last year to become the world’s biggest exporter, and it is already the primary determiner of the price of virtually every major commodity.
Global companies like Caterpillar, General Electric, General Motors and Siemens — as well as scores of others — are making a more aggressive push into China, in some cases moving research and development centers there. Some analysts, though, say that while China is eager to assert itself as a financial and economic power — and to push its state companies to “go global” — it is reluctant to play a greater role in the debate over climate change or how to slow the growth of greenhouse gases. China passed the United States in 2006 to become the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, which scientists link to global warming.
